PCE, GDP, Consumer Confidence

21:30 EDT Australian Retails Sales numbers came in at 1.4%, the expected number was 1.0%. This is huge move and a big increase in inflationary numbers. The Trade Balance increased to -1.75B from the expected -1.1B, a sign that imports are exceeding exports in the region. 21:20 EDT Asian Equity Markets are tumbling over concerns that another Hedge Fund is unable to raise capital to cover over leveraged CDO’s. This will likely strengthen the Yen and may push up US Treasury Note yields, and that in turn could lead to US$ strength, if it does follow through. 19:05 EDT UK Consumer Confidence number just printed at 96, a increase on the expected number. These are coming in strong each month and confirms that the UK consumer is happy to spend.15:00 EDT Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance are due out at 21:30 EDT tonight, both of which will have the ability to move prices. 10:00 EDT US Construction Spending, a record of the expenditure of builders on public and private projects, came in at -0.3%, much lower than last months read of 1.1%. The impact may be felt more in the Equity Markets, that impact however, may go on to affect Treasury Yields which in turn impacts the currency markets, if traders are patient enough to let the picture build. 10:00 EDT US Consumer Confidence numbers were in higher than expected with a strong read of 112.6, the highest this year and in contrast to the PCE numbers that just limped in-line. These numbers were collated before the Stock Market dropped the gains for the year last week. 09:45 EFT US Chicago Purchase Managers Index, the rate of business expansion in the region was due in at 59.0, down from the previous read of 60.2. The numbers printed at 53.4, quite a dramatic miss overall. No inflationary pressures for the Fed to worry about here. 08:45 EDT Consumer spending rose at the slowest pace in 9 months, with the PCE Deflator rising the least since 2004. The Fed uses the Deflator to strip out energy and food costs and this read showed a fairly dramatic overall slowdown when looking at a yearly rate. With house prices having to fall to eliminate the large inventory numbers the consumer is possibly coming under pressure to sustain the economic recovery in manufacturing and services. The numbers are by no means poor, they are however showing a slowdown that Traders will have to monitor next month.08:35 EDT Equity Markets globally have found strong buying pressure today, Treasury Yields are increasing as Traders see value in the Stock Market, well for today they do anyway. 08:30 EDT US Core PCE numbers came in very close to expected, with Income and Expenditure inline as well. No inflationary pressure in these numbers for the Fed to worry about, but housing fears may still come to the fore next month. 08:30 EDT Canadian GDP numbers came in at 0.3%, the expected rate of growth in goods and services was 0.4%. This is an increase on last month. 06:00 EDT The Confederation of British Industry, the CBI, revealed that UK Retail Sales trends showed an increase on the year-over-year numbers, but a slight decrease on the expected numbers for the next 12 months. 05:50 EDT Canadian GDP, the read on the value of Goods and Services produced, due for release at 08:30, is looking to increase to 0.4%. The recent run on the CAD may come into sharp focus if this number misses either way. 05:30 EDT UK Consumer Confidence levels dropped to the lowest this year, in at -6 compared to -3 last month. The read may help to confirm that the recent Bank of England Interest Rate hikes have started to have the effect of slowing the economic growth that was threatening to increase inflation. These numbers take on more importance than normal in the week of an Interest Rate decision from the BOE. 05:20 EDT US$ Traders will be closely watching the releases this morning as they will reveal numbers that the FOMC use to help decide economic strength. The Personal Consumption and Expenditure numbers are the Fed’s preferred gauge of near-term inflationary pressure, Income is looking to increase, whilst spending is looking to decrease. Consumer Confidence numbers are looking to increase from 103 to 105, a big increase considering the condition of the housing market, and Chicago PMI is looking to drop lower as the business activity may have slowed. 05:00 EDT The Unemployment rate in Euro Land held steady at 6.9%, as expected. Consumer Confidence was as expected at -2.0, the same read as last month. 05:00 EDT Euro Zone CPI, the read on inflation, dropped to 1.8% from the 2.0% expected. This is under the ECB’s target rate and reduces dramatically the chances of the Central Bank raising Interest Rates on Thursday. 04:00 EDT German Unemployment stayed at 9.0%, a read that is under the recent 10% average, as Retail Sales increased from -2.5% last month to 0.7% now.02:00 EDT Australia has a big night of economic releases coming. The Retail Sales numbers are looking for a big increase to 1.0%, that will add to the pressure on the RBA to look hard at raising rates at the next meeting. The CPI number has already shown inflationary pressures and the last time it read as strong as this a rate hike followed. The Trade Balance is expected to decrease from -0.8b to -1.1b. Both numbers are out at 21:00 Tuesday. 00:00 EDT New Zealand Business Confidence numbers came in at -39, down from -37 last month. Higher interest rates, at 8.25%, are finally affecting business outlooks for the coming year.